Update: Duncan is in the lead in Edmonton-Strathcona. I'm pretty sure about the other two predictions, though.I made some predictions. Three were good. Two were not. First, the results from the election are outside the 95% certainty threshold. So no, Calgary Grit's projections were not close.Second, Jim Ford did a hell of a lot better than 15-20% in my riding of Edmonton-Sherwood Park.There is a strange sort of glee looking at Peter Mansbridge furrow his brow and say "Who's that third independent coming up on the board? I thought I saw one in Edmonton, but that would mean someone was beating a conservative in Alberta. Must be only a couple of polls reporting" (Paraphrasing)Well, no. As of right now, after see-sawing back and forth with Tim Uppal the whole night, he sits at 31% of the popular vote in this constituency, about 1000 votes behind Uppal, and about 5000 votes ahead of the third place NDP candidate.I'm looking at the number 2 on the gray bar on CBC Newsworld, and I'm watching a flashing blue riding on my computer screen for a while now, so I'm confident he won't actually win it.But holy cow. I did not see that coming. I'm not sure what it means, if anything at all, but I'll get back to you on it.